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The Overall Value of the Lighting Market Will Shrink as Energy Efficient LEDs Displace Conventional Technology

Improving lighting efficiency is an investment in the future. While today cost remains a barrier to the adoption of more efficient lighting, particularly LED lighting, those costs are declining rapidly and mass adoption could happen in a relatively short timeframe. According to a recent report from Pike Research, LEDs will displace more than 52% of the global market for lamps in commercial buildings by 2021. The cleantech market intelligence firm anticipates that the combination of declining prices for LED lighting and the accompanying extended lamp lifetimes will have the effect of shrinking the overall value of the market.
While revenues from LED lamps in the commercial sector will rise by 8.5% through 2021, to $2.7 billion, Pike Research forecasts, the overall market for commercial lighting will peak at $54 billion in 2012 before contracting through the remainder of the decade, hitting about $30 billion in 2021.
"It would be hard to imagine in today's world that technology will not beat out tradition," says senior analyst Eric Bloom. "The commercial lighting industry will undergo a transformation over the next 10 years that will result in a significant drop in direct revenue from unit sales. Lamp and luminaire manufacturers and others in the value chain will have to rely on lighting controls and services to offset the revenue and profit lost in this process."
Internationally, the trend toward efficiency is highly correlated with economic and infrastructure conditions. While Europe and Asia are conservation-minded and open to government programs to limit consumption, the United States is highly fragmented due to state-driven codes and regional electric rate variations, and is comparatively new to the concept of conservation. Much, but not all of Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and parts of Asia are working toward developing adequate infrastructure and are lagging behind in commercial lighting efficiency due to other higher priorities.
Pike Research's report, "Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets", describes the key factors that are influencing the market for energy efficient lighting around the world: trends in energy codes, rebate and subsidy programs, sustainability/green certifications, raw material supply issues, geopolitical influences in developing and developed nations, and more. The report describes the influence of industry structure, key applications, and the many technology issues involved in the decision to specify various lighting technologies. Comprehensive unit and dollar forecasts are presented through 2021, segmented by application, lamp type/LED, luminaires, and geographic region. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.

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